State Fragility and International Structures: Tracing the Effects of Global War on Terrorism (GWoT)

This research investigates the external drivers of state fragility by examining the Global War on Terror (GWoT) as a proxy for international structure. States within the international system do not exist in isolation; rather, the ideational and material dimensions of global structures can shape their trajectories toward either resilience or fragility. Accordingly, this study explores how, and under what conditions, the ideational and material factors associated with the GWoT influence state fragility. State fragility is conceptualized as a condition in which a state fails to effectively bind ideational and material factors, resulting in diminished legitimacy among its population and/or reduced capacity to perform core state functions. The study categorizes fragile conditions into three types: Type-1 fragility (capacity deficit), Type-2 fragility (legitimacy deficit), and Type-3 fragility (combined deficits in both capacity and legitimacy). The structure of the GWoT is theorized through three interconnected pathways—cognitive, regulatory, and capability pathways—through which international structures may affect fragile states. Using process-tracing methodology, the study examines three comparative case studies, representing Type-1, Type-2, and Type-3 fragility respectively. This research contributes to the critical literature on state fragility by offering an original conceptualization of the cognitive, regulatory, and capability pathways of the GWoT. The proposed framework may also be applied to other case studies or adapted to examine the influence of broader global and regional security or economic structures on state fragility and resilience.